Sea change
What five years of marine trends reveal about global supply chains
Over the past five years, the global supply chain has rarely been out of the headlines. For shippers moving goods across oceans, the period has been defined by disruption, uncertainty and constant change.
What began with the shock of COVID quickly gave way to a rolling series of challenges: geopolitical conflict, port congestion, vessel rerouting, longer voyages, shifting loss patterns and increasingly organised theft.
Our marine team have had a unique vantage point throughout this turbulence. Handling thousands of claims across the full span of the supply chain has highlighted not just where risks are emerging, but how shippers can adapt to stay resilient. The lessons from those claims are shaping how we support brokers and customers today.
Change is the new normal
When the pandemic hit, “supply chain” became a household phrase. What had once been industry jargon was suddenly part of everyday conversation, as disruption reduced the reliability of vessels, leading to empty shelves and delivery delays, making the fragility of global trade visible to consumers.
While COVID highlighted the vulnerabilities of just-in-time supply chains, it also accelerated change in freight task, for example, the increase in online shopping, which changed the nature of claims. Instead of just container loads, we began handling surging parcel volumes, and seeing how small packaging missteps could cause big problems.
With borders closed and freight routes clogged, shippers relying on lean inventory often couldn’t meet demand. Many have since shifted to a just-in-case approach, holding more stock, diversifying suppliers and spreading risk across regions. India, for example, is emerging as a key partner alongside China.
Our risk engineer and marine claims team have helped shippers and retailers adapt to the changing environment by improving practices, and supporting customers in the event of loss or damage.
Longer voyages, higher stakes
COVID may have been the initial shock, but the pressures on supply chains haven’t eased since. Geopolitical conflicts, shifting trade routes and congestion at ports continue to extend voyage times and increase risks for cargo owners.
The closure of the Red Sea forced many vessels to bypass the Suez Canal and divert around the Cape of Good Hope, adding two to three weeks to their voyages*. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and wider unrest in the Middle East have further disrupted traditional corridors.
The closure of the Red Sea (before and after)
The closure of the Red Sea (before and after)
With longer routes, restricted canal access and rougher conditions, vessels face greater exposure to heavy weather and a higher risk of cargo damage in transit.
With vessels spending longer at sea, containers are tied up for extended periods. To keep freight moving, shipping lines have reintroduced redundant equipment that would normally have been decommissioned. Many of these containers are in poor condition, with holes, faulty vents or worn seals.
A lot of shipping lines brought back redundant equipment, so there’s a greater potential that might not be quite up to scratch. We observed cargo being transported in containers with holes, or vents not working properly, leading to the potential for water or humidity damage to the goods inside. Put these factors together with containers being at sea for longer due to significant route changes, and you have an increased potential for loss or damage to cargo.
*International Monetary Fund (IMF), Red Sea Attacks Disrupt Global Trade, 2024
These shifts are visible in our claims portfolio. Longer voyages, stressed equipment and port delays are driving higher rates of water, humidity and mould damage, particularly for retail cargo. Water damage claims, in particular, increased by 20 per cent in 2025.
Temperature-controlled cargo has also been affected. Refrigerated containers pushed harder and serviced less often are failing more frequently, leading to a 15 per cent rise in temperature control claims.
Increased congestion added another layer of pressure during the last couple of years. In Sydney, port dwell times grew by up to 30 per cent, while one NTI customer in Melbourne had 30 refrigerated containers stranded offshore for three weeks, leaving them unable to meet supermarket contracts despite the delay being beyond their control.
Our role is not only to settle these claims, but to help prevent them. By analysing loss data and providing risk engineering support, we have guided customers toward practical solutions, from improved packaging design to better humidity controls.
One importer of industrial kitchen equipment, for example, halved its claim frequency after working with our risk engineer to redesign packaging and restraint systems suited to rougher sea conditions.
Targeted in transit
Cargo theft has escalated in both scale and sophistication. With hotspots emerging in North America and Southeast Asia, we saw a 10 per cent increase in theft claims from 2024 to 2025.
What was once opportunistic pilfering is now driven by organised groups that track shipments and time their thefts to exploit weak points in the supply chain.
Nearly every NTI claim involving imports from the US over the past two years has involved theft, non-delivery or unexplained loss. Theft has become a regular feature of inland transport legs, in particular – containers moving by rail and road are broken into, part of the load is removed, and the doors are resealed, leaving the loss undetected until the cargo reaches Australia.
Around major Asian ports such as Singapore and Manila, delays and interference – from document tampering to poor handling infrastructure – have created further opportunities for theft.
In Australia, car theft has surged. Our carrier theft claims increased around 40 per cent from 2024 to 2025, and stolen vehicles accounted for nearly a third of these, with organised groups seeking high-value models and spare parts.
Operators responded by hardening their sites and tightening access to information. From bollards, alarms and CCTV to 24-hour on-site staff, stricter key management and trusted-staff policies, businesses went to extraordinary lengths to protect their fleets. Even so, the sophistication of organised crime means theft remains a persistent risk.
We use our claims data and risk engineering expertise to help customers understand where custody chains are most vulnerable and suggest practical improvements. And while recoveries in theft cases are complex, our dedicated in-house marine recoveries team pursues responsible parties wherever possible to help contain costs and protect premiums.
Building resilience in a disrupted world
If the past five years have shown anything, it’s that disruption is no longer measured in short-term shocks – it’s now a permanent feature of global trade.
For shippers and retailers, the response has been to diversify supply chains, hold more buffer stock, and invest in packaging and site security that can withstand tougher conditions. Those steps don’t eliminate risk, but they do make businesses more resilient when the unexpected happens.
Our role is to turn claims expertise into practical guidance. By analysing thousands of cases, our marine specialists identify recurring patterns of loss and share proven strategies that help customers strengthen their operations, from packaging and equipment choices to supply chain planning.
With conflicts, theft, congestion and rerouted trade all reshaping the way goods move, supply chains will continue to face challenges. But the adaptability of the logistics industry, backed by insights and support from experienced partners, remains its greatest strength.
For brokers and customers, the focus now is not just on weathering the next disruption, but on building the resilience to keep goods moving, no matter what comes next.
With one of Australia’s largest and most experienced teams of marine insurance experts, we are here to support brokers and customers through these challenges.
This article contains general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should obtain professional advice based on relevant personal circumstances. Our products are subject to limits and exclusions. NTI is not responsible or liable for your use or reliance on the information in this article. Insurance products are provided by National Transport Insurance, a joint venture of the insurers CGU Australia Pty Ltd trading as CGU Insurance ABN 62 004 478 960 AFSL 700014 and AAI Limited Trading as Vero Insurance ABN 48 005 297 807 AFSL 230859 each holding a 50% share. National Transport Insurance is administered on behalf of the insurers by its manager NTI Limited ABN 84 000 746 109 AFSL 237246
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